Program 

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Pre-Conference Tutorial

Wednesday, October 12th, 2011 from 2 to 5 pm   

Room: Kennedy

Chair: Lisa M. LaVange, U.S. Food and Drug Administration

Absolute Risk Prediction (ABSTRACT

Mitchell H. Gail and Ruth Pfeiffer, National Cancer Institute


3:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. Coffee and Tea

Room: Adams next to Kennedy


Conference Program for Thursday, October 13th, 2011 (* Presenting Author)


7:30 a.m. - 8:00 a.m. Continental breakfast

Rooms: Lincoln pre-function room and Adams next to Kennedy


8:00 a.m. - 8:15 a.m.

Welcome:

Room: Kennedy

Ken Gertz, Associate Vice President for Research Development, University of Maryland, College Park


8:15 a.m. - 8:30 a.m.

Opening Remarks:

Room: Kennedy

Robert Gold, Dean, School of Public Health, University of Maryland, College Park


8:30 a.m. - 9:40 a.m.

Session 1: Opening Talk

Room: Kennedy

Chair: Andrew N. Freedman, Chief, Clinical and Translational Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute

Pharmaceutical Risk Assessment and Predictive Enrichment to Maximize Benefit and Minimize Risk – Issues in Product Life Cycle Evaluation (ABSTRACT)

Robert T. O'Neill*, U.S. Food and Drug Administration


8:30 a.m. - 9:40 a.m.

Session 2: The Stochastics of Diagnostic Tests and Reliability Methods

Room: Lincoln

Chair: Jiuzhou Song, University of Maryland, College Park

The Stochastics of Diagnostic Tests (ABSTRACT)

Nozer D. Singpurwalla*, George Washington University

Residuals and Functional Form in Accelerated Life Regression Models (ABSTRACT)

Bo Lindqvist*, Stein Aaserud, Norwegian University of Science and Technology; Jan Terje Kvaloy, University of Stavanger, Norway


8:30 a.m. - 9:50 a.m.

Session 3: Selection of Target Population and Treatment

Room: Grant

Chair: Henry Hsu, U.S. Food and Drug Administration

Biologic Risk Models for Predicting Recurrence for Patients with Resected Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (ABSTRACT)

Jack Lee*, Diane Liu, Heather Lin, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center

Effectively Selecting A Target Population for A Future Comparative Study (ABSTRACT)

Lihui Zhao*, Harvard University; Lu Tian, Stanford University; Tianxi Cai, Brian Claggett, Lee-Jen Wei, Harvard University

Variable Selection for Optimal Treatment Decision (ABSTRACT)

Wenbin Lu*, Hao Zhang, North Carolina State University; Donglin Zeng, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill


9:40 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. Coffee and Tea

Rooms: Lincoln pre-function room and Adams next to Kennedy


10:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.

Session 4: Spatial-Temporal Risk Analysis

Room: Kennedy

Chair: Antonio Possolo, National Institute of Standards and Technology

Spatial-temporal Risk Analysis of Case-control Studies of Cancer (ABSTRACT)

David Wheeler*, National Cancer Institute

Spatial Spline Models for Estimation of Age-specific HIV Prevalence (ABSTRACT)

Matthew Austin, Victor DeGruttola*, Harvard University

Forecasting Mortality Rates via Density Ratio Modeling (ABSTRACT)

Benjamin Kedem*, University of Maryland, College Park

Modeling Spatial Temporal Epidemics using STBL Model (ABSTRACT)

Sung Duck Lee*, Chungbuk National University, South Korea; Lynne Billard, University of Georgia


10:00 a.m. - 12:10 p.m.

Session 5: Semi-Parametric Models

Room: Lincoln

Chair: Tzu-Cheg Kao, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

A Measure of Explained Risk in the Proportional Hazards Model (ABSTRACT)

Glenn Heller*, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center

Latency Analysis Under the Cox Model with Applications in Air Pollution Study (ABSTRACT)

Molin Wang*, Donna Spiegelman, Harvard University

Partly Conditional Estimation of the Effect of a Time-dependent Factor in the Presence of Dependent Censoring (ABSTRACT)

Douglas Schaubel*, Qi Gong, University of Michigan

Nonparametric Risk Assessment in Tumorgenicity Experiments (ABSTRACT)

Jianguo Sun*, University of Missouri


10:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.

Session 6: Risk Analysis in Food Safety and Air Pollution

Room: Grant

Chair: Lihan Huang, U.S. Department of Agriculture

Quantitative Risk Assessments to Evaluate Food Safety Issues for Listeria Monocytogenes in Ready-to-eat Deli Meats (ABSTRACT)

Abani Pradhan*, University of Maryland, College Park

Development and Validation of Exposure Biomarkers to Dietary Contaminants: Mycotoxins (ABSTRACT)

Paul C. Turner*, University of Maryland, College Park

Indoor Air Pollution From Solid Fuels and Lung Cancer Risks in Low Income Countries (ABSTRACT)

Amir Sapkota*, University of Maryland, College Park

An Adaptive Nonparametric Method in Bench-mark Analysis for Bioassay and Environmental Studies (ABSTRACT)

Lizhen Lin*, Rabi Bhattacharya, University of Arizona


12:00 p.m. - 1:20 p.m. Lunch

Room: Adams next to Kennedy


1:20 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.

Session 7: Pharmaceutical Products and Vaccines

Room: Kennedy

Chair: Mary Foulkes, George Washington University

Safety Assessment and Risk Management of Pharmaceutical Products (ABSTRACT)

Christy Chuang-Stein*, Pfizer Inc.

Statistical Evaluation of Immunological Markers in Vaccine Clinical Trials (ABSTRACT)

Ivan Chan*, Merck & Company, Inc.

Assessing Genomic Biomarker’s Clinical Utility for Drug Development versus for Clinical Management (ABSTRACT)

Sue-Jane Wang*, U.S. Food and Drug Administration


1:20 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.

Session 8: Special Session by the National Institute of Standards and Technology

Room: Lincoln

Chair: Jeffrey Herrmann, University of Maryland, College Park

Assessment in the NIST Speaker Recognition Evaluation (ABSTRACT)

Hung-kung Liu*, Alvin Martin, Craig Greenberg, National Institute of Standards and Technology

Mapping Return Values of Extreme Wind Gusts (ABSTRACT)

Adam Pintar*, Antonio Possolo, National Institute of Standards and Technology

Decision Analysis Methods for Selecting Consumer Services with Attribute Value Uncertainty (ABSTRACT)

Dennis Leber*, National Institute of Standards and Technology; Jeffrey Herrmann, University of Maryland, College Park


1:20 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.

Session 9: Dose-Response Models and Control Charts

Room: Grant

Chair: Naitee Ting, Boehringer-Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals Inc.

A Framework for Modeling Biological Data (ABSTRACT)

Chao Chen*, Leonid Kopylev, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Relative Potency Functions for Dose-response Studies (ABSTRACT)

Gregg Dinse*, David Umbach, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

Guaranteed Conditional Performance of Control Charts via Bootstrap Methods (ABSTRACT)

Axel Gandy*, Imperial College London, United Kingdom; Jan Terje Kvaloy, University of Stavanger, Norway


3:00 p.m. - 3:20 p.m. Coffee and Tea

Rooms: Lincoln pre-function room and Adams next to Kennedy


3:20 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.

Session 10 : Population Risk Models

Room: Kennedy

Chair: Karen Bandeen-Roche, Johns Hopkins University

Age-period-cohort Models in Cancer Surveillance Research: Ready for Prime Time? (ABSTRACT)

Philip Rosenberg*, William Anderson, National Cancer Institute

A New, Population Based Approach to Ultrasound Term Prediction Models (ABSTRACT)

Hakon Gjessing*, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Norway; Per Grottum, University of Oslo, Norway; Sturla Eik-Nes, National Center for Fetal Medicine, Norway

Non-proportionality of Sub-hazards in the Competing Events Framework (ABSTRACT)

Alvaro Muñoz*, Alison G. Abraham, Matthew Matheson, Nikolas Wada, Johns Hopkins University

Risk Assessment Using Records of Physician Visits from Cancer Survivors (ABSTRACT)

Joan Hu*, Simon Fraser University, Canada


3:20 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.

Session 11: Evaluating Prediction Models I

Room: Lincoln

Chair: Michael Larsen, George Washington University

Testing for Improvement in Prediction Model Performance (ABSTRACT)

Margaret Pepe*, University of Washington

Two Criteria for Evaluating Risk Prediction Models (ABSTRACT)

Ruth Pfeiffer*, Mitchell H. Gail, National Cancer Institute

Risk Prediction with Complex Studies (ABSTRACT)

Tianxi Cai*, Jennifer Sinnott, Harvard University; Yingye Zheng, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center

Discrimination Measures for Survival Outcomes: Connection Between the AUC and the Predictiveness Curve (ABSTRACT)

Vivian Viallon*, University of Lyon 1, France; Aurelien Latouche, University of Versailles, France


3:20 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.

Session 12: Genetic and Molecular Markers

Room: Grant

Chair: Leonid Kopylev, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Assessing Risk in Families with Cancer (ABSTRACT)

Giovani Parmigiani*, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute

Conjugate Sensitivity to Anti-mitotic Chemotherapy versus Targeted Therapy is Revealed and Predicted by Tumor-invasion Gene-expression Profiling (ABSTRACT)

Ker-Chau Li*, Yi-Chiung Hsu, Academia Sinica, Taiwan

Efficient Multi-marker Tests for Association in Case-control Studies (ABSTRACT)

Thomas Louis*, Margart Taub, Johns Hopkins University; Holger Schwender, TU Dortmund University, Germany; Ingo Ruczinksi, Johns Hopkins University

Identification of Germline Mutations in Familial Syndromes Using Sequencing Data (ABSTRACT)

Wenyi Wang*, Gang Peng, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center


Poster Presentation

Thursday, October 13th, 2011 from 9:30 am to 4:30 pm


The Poster Presentation will take place in the Lincoln pre-function room.


The conference will provide standard 36"x 48" tri-fold boards and push pins to poster presenters. Posters will be on display from 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. on Thursday, October 13th, 2011. All posters must be removed by 5:00 p.m. (October 13th) without damaging the poster board.


The posters are listed in alphabetical order by the first author's last name.


Poster 1: Assessing Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models: A Systematic Review of Model Development and Performance (ABSTRACT)

Thunyarat Anothaisintawee*, Mahidol University, Thailand; Ammarin Thakkinstian, Mahidol University, Thailand; Yot Teerawattananon, Ministry of Health, Thailand

Poster 2: Assessing the Added Value of Breast Tumor Markers in Breast Cancer Genetic Risk Prediction Model BRCAPRO (ABSTRACT)

Swati Biswas*, Neelam Tankhiwale, University of North Texas Health Science Center; Amanda Blackford, Johns Hopkins University; Angelica M. Gutierrez Barrera, Christopher I. Amos, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center; Giovanni Parmigiani, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; Banu Arun, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center

Poster 3: A Comparison of Genetic Risk Score Models for Predictive Modeling of Disease Risk (ABSTRACT)

Ronglin Che*, Alison Motsinger-Reif, North Carolina State University

Poster 4: Semiparametric Bayesian Joint Modeling of a Binary and Continuous Outcome (ABSTRACT)

Beomseuk Hwang*, Michael Pennell, The Ohio State University

Poster 5: Estimating Relative Risk of Disease from Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors (ABSTRACT)

Cathryn Lewis*, Daniel Crouch, Graham Goddard, King's College London, United Kingdom

Poster 6: Is the Current Cutoffs of Triglycerides and High Density Cholesterol a Useful Tool for the Definition of the Metabolic Syndrome in Non-hispanic Blacks? (ABSTRACT)

Jiuzhou Song*, Omy Rodriguez, Yali Hou, George Liu, University of Maryland, College Park

Poster 7: Constructing Normalcy and Discrepancy Indexes from Birth Weight and Gestational Age Using a Threshold Regression Mixture Model (ABSTRACT)

G.A. Whitmore, McGill University, Canada; Guangyu Zhang, National Center for Health Statistics; Mei-Ling Ting Lee*, University of Maryland, College Park

Poster 8: Development and Evaluation of Risk Prediction Models for Retinopathy of Prematurity Using Postnatal Weight Gain (ABSTRACT)

Guishuang Ying*, University of Pennsylvania; Gil Binenbaum, Graham Quinn, Haresh Kirpalani, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia

Poster 9: Stratified and Clustered Competing Risks Regression, with Applications to Clinical Trials (ABSTRACT)

Bingqing Zhou*, Yale University


Conference Program  for Friday, October 14th, 2011 (* Presenting Author)


7:30 a.m. - 8:00 a.m. Continental breakfast

Rooms: Lincoln pre-function room and Adams next to Kennedy


8:00 a.m. - 10:10 a.m.

Session 13: Comparative Benefit/Risk Assessment

Room: Kennedy

Chair: David Oakes, University of Rochester

Post-randomization Factors, Direct Effects and Randomized Trials to Measure Risk Reductions (ABSTRACT)

Nicholas Jewell*, University of California, Berkeley

Development of a Benefit/Risk Assessment Tool for Breast Cancer Chemoprevention (ABSTRACT)

Andrew N. Freedman*, National Cancer Institute; Binbing Yu, National Institute on Aging; Mitchell H. Gail, National Cancer Institute; Joseph P. Costantino, University of Pittsburgh; Barry I. Graubard, National Cancer Institute; Victor G. Vogel, Geisinger Health System; Garnet L. Anderson, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center; Worta McCaskill-Stevens, National Cancer Institute

Comparative Benefits for Disease Prevention of Improved Interventions versus More Discriminating Models of Disease Risk (ABSTRACT)

Mitchell Gail*, National Cancer Institute

Using Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Risk Functions in Public Health and Clinical Trials: The Framingham Experience and Beyond (ABSTRACT)

Ralph B. D'Agostino, Sr., Boston University; Joseph Massaro*, Boston University & Harvard Clinical Research Institute


8:00 a.m. - 10:10 a.m.

Session 14: Evaluating Risk Prediction Models II

Room: Lincoln

Chair: Yi Tsong, U.S. Food and Drug Administration

Evaluating the Predictive Value of Biomarkers with Failure Time Outcome (ABSTRACT)

Yingye Zheng*, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center; Tianxi Cai, Harvard University

Designing Studies to Evaluate Biomarkers for Selecting Patient Treatment (ABSTRACT)

Holly Janes*, Margaret Pepe, Ying Huang, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center

Assessing Discrimination of Risk Prediction Rules in a Clustered Data Setting (ABSTRACT)

Bernard Rosner*, Weiliang Qiu, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard University; Mei-Ling T. Lee, University of Maryland, College Park

Bivariate Marker Measurements and ROC Analysis (ABSTRACT)

Mei-Cheng Wang*, Shanshan Li, Johns Hopkins University


8:00 a.m. - 10:10 a.m.

Session 15: Advanced Methods in Survival Analysis

Room: Grant

Chair: George Luta, Georgetown University

A New Class of Estimating Equation-based Variable Selectors for Marginal Regression Models (ABSTRACT)

Yi Li*, Dave Zhao, Harvard University

Neyman, Markov Processes and Survival analysis (ABSTRACT)

Grace Yang*, University of Maryland, College Park

Survival Analysis of Phase-type Regression Models (ABSTRACT)

Eric Slud*, Census Bureau & University of Maryland, College Park; Jiraphan Suntornchost, University of Maryland, College Park

Screening for Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women: A Case Study in Interval Censored Competing Risks Data (ABSTRACT)

Jason Fine*, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill


10:10 a.m. - 10:30 a.m. Coffee and Tea

Rooms: Lincoln pre-function room and Adams next to Kennedy


10:30 a.m. - 12:40 p.m.

Session 16: Genetic and Epigenetic Factors in Risk Analysis

Room: Kennedy

Chair: Chao Agnes Hsiung, National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan

Use of Resampling Methods for the Evaluation of High-dimensional Survival Risk Models (ABSTRACT)

Richard Simon*, Jyothi Subramanian, National Cancer Institute

Prediction with Scores of Tiny Effects: Lessons from Genome-wide Association Studies (ABSTRACT)

Nilanjan Chatterjee*, JuHyun Park, Mitchell H. Gail, National Cancer Institute

Incorporating Auxiliary Information for Improved Prediction in High Dimensional Datasets: An Ensemble of Shrinkage Approaches (ABSTRACT)

Philip Boonstra*, Jeremy Taylor, Bhramar Mukherjee, University of Michigan

Sequential Support Vector Regression Model with Embedded Entropy for Disease Prediction and SNP Selection (ABSTRACT)

Yulan Liang*, Arpad Kelemen, University of Maryland, Baltimore

Estimation of Cause-specific Invasive Breast Cancer Cumulative Incidence in the Presence of Competing Risks (ABSTRACT)

Sharareh Taghipour*, Bart Harvey, Joanne Fernandes, University of Toronto, Canada


10:30 a.m. - 12:50 p.m.

Session 17: Reclassification Statistics in Comparing Risk Models

Room: Lincoln

Chair: Mounir Mesbah, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie Paris VI, France

Performance of Reclassification Statistics in Comparing Risk Prediction Models (ABSTRACT)

Nancy Cook*, Brigham and Women's Hospital

Interpreting Incremental Value Offered by New Predictors (ABSTRACT)

Michael J. Pencina*, Harvard Clinical Research Institute & Boston University

Comparing the Expected Misclassification Cost for Two Classifiers Based on Estimates From the Same Sample (ABSTRACT)

James Troendle*, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; Kai Yu, Tsingua University, China; Peter Westfall, Texas Tech University; Gene Pennello, U.S. Food and Drug Administration; Enrique Schisterman, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development

Absolute Risk Prediction of Second Primary Thyroid Cancer for 5-year Childhood Cancer Survivors Based on Patient-reported Treatment History (ABSTRACT)

Stephanie Kovalchik*, Ruth Pfeiffer, National Cancer Institute; PIRATES Investigators

Comparing ROC Curves Derived from Nested Models (ABSTRACT)

Mithat Gonen*, Venkatraman Seshan, Colin Begg, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center;


10:30 a.m. - 12:40 p.m.

Session 18: Non-Proportional Hazards Models

Room: Grant

Chair: Richard Valliant, University of Michigan

Concordance Estimation with Censored Regression Models (ABSTRACT)

Zhezhen Jin*, Xinhua Liu, Wei-Yann Tsai, Columbia University

Graphically Presenting the Treatment Effect via Semiparametric Analysis for Survival Data (ABSTRACT)

Song Yang*, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute

Modelling Health Processes for Population Risk Assessments: The Case of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (ABSTRACT)

G. A. Whitmore*, McGill University, Canada

Regression Modeling of Time to Event Data using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process (ABSTRACT)

Roger Erich, Michael Pennell*, The Ohio State University;


12:45 p.m. - 2:00 p.m. Lunch

Room: Adams next to Kennedy


2:00 p.m. - 4:20 p.m.

Session 19: High-dimensional Search for Risk Factors

Room: Lincoln

Chair: Robert Strawderman, Cornell University

Etiologic Heterogeneity of Cancers and the Improved Search for Risk Factors (ABSTRACT)

Colin Begg*, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center

Bayesian Ensemble Methods for Survival Prediction in Gene Expression Data (ABSTRACT)

Kim-Anh Do*, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center

Assessing the Effects of Two Epigenetic Factors on Complex Genetics Traits (ABSTRACT)

Shili Lin*, The Ohio State University

High-dimensional Heteroscedastic Regression with an Application to eQTL Data Analysis (ABSTRACT)

John Daye*, Jinbo Chen, Hongzhe Li,  University of Pennsylvania

Penalized Likelihood Approach to Variable Selection Using Cox’s Regression in Nested Case–control Studies (ABSTRACT)

I-Shou Chang*, National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan; Cheihui Wang, National Tsing-Hua University, Taiwan; Chao A. Hsiung, National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan; Howard Pan, National Central University, Taiwan


2:00 p.m. - 3:10 p.m.

Session 20: Current Status Data; Risk Management

Room: Grant

Chair: Grace Yang, University of Maryland, College Park

Slice Sampler for Current Status Data Under Linear Transformation Models (ABSTRACT)

Lianming Wang*, Timothy Hanson, University of South Carolina

Placing Pre-event Pharmaceuticals for Anthrax: Using Models for Risk Management (ABSTRACT)

Jeffrey Herrmann*, University of Maryland, College Park


3:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. Coffee and Tea

Rooms: Lincoln pre-function room and Adams next to Kennedy


Conference Tutorial

Friday, October 14th, 2011 from 2 to 5 pm

Room: Kennedy

Chair: Ruth Pfeiffer, National Cancer Institute

Current Methods for Evaluating Prediction Performance of Biomarkers and Tests (ABSTRACT)

Margaret S. Pepe, University of Washington